Poker Vs. Love: How a Poker Player’s Mentality Can Lead to Giving Up on Love

The last card hit the table, and I quickly eliminated all of my cards left to win with and adjusted my percentages.

Chance of one good pair = 60%.

Chance of two pair or better = 10%.

Chance of Ace High = 20%.

Chance of a bluff or missed draw = 10%.

I estimated my pair of sixes would win 30% of the time, but my opponent bet $600 into a pot containing $400. Risking $400 to win $1000 would mean I would need to be right about 40% to make this a profitable move. I quickly jettisoned my sixes and moved on to the next hand, confident in the long run I would be profitable to the tune of 15% a year for the fifth year in a row.

Usually when poker is portrayed in the movies, a staring contest between a grizzled cowboy and a distinguished gentleman with a hidden pistol plays out. A subtle twitch of the cowboy’s eye, a bead of sweat trickles down his jawline, and the gentleman pushes his chips into the center, calling the massive bluff the cowboy made. The read on the cowboy’s tell works, and the cowboy loses his ranch or horse or something. Being able to pick up “tells” is the thing that makes a poker player in the movies.

Real poker doesn’t actually work that way. Most of it is careful analysis of betting patterns, hand and board reading, assessing frequencies of actions, then measuring percentages of hand ranges against the offered pot odds to come to a profitable decision. It isn’t glamorous. It isn’t flashy. Poker players refer to it as “grinding” for a good reason. It can be very boring sometimes. Often the correct decision is just to fold and move on.

Being able to release an unprofitable hand is the hallmark of a smart, logical, and winning player.

As a poker player, I’m seen as someone rational and level headed by my friends, and they often come to me for advice. A long time friend of mine, Peter, met a woman named Annabelle through an online communications forum for young entrepreneurs. They had talked on Zoom for four hours a day for the last four days, and boy, was he was smitten. They both loved to eat and cook exotic foods. They loved Latin dance and music. Both wanted to get married and have kids, and they loved their big families. As entrepreneurs, they both shared the same visions for their businesses. Peter is a great guy with a big heart, and Annabelle really seemed to love that about him. They both contributed a lot to their communities, and had big circles of friends.

There was only one problem: She lived in Milwaukee, and he lived in San Jose.

Peter wanted to know if he should ask Annabelle to meet in person, and immediately, the percentages started flashing through my mind.

Many common interests = +20%.

Similar senses of humor = +10%.

Clearly stated future goals = +20%.

Appreciation for each other’s perceived good qualities = +15%.

Large and loyal support groups = +15%.

Strong ties to communities and love of charity work = + 10%.

Lack of time together = -35%.

Distance = — 40%.

Global pandemic logistics = — 25%.

Peter’s tendency to let his heart get the better of him = -15%

Peter just got over a tough breakup and may be inflating how good Annabelle really is = -20%

Likelihood of logistical nightmares messing up their relationship, causing Peter to get hurt hard, and requiring a week of us drinking shots and comforting Peter while he vomits = -195%

This added up to an unprofitable play for Peter, and I told him he should just stay friends.

He nodded sadly, as if he knew what I was going to say. I didn't want to break the guy’s heart, but I knew the numbers just didn’t make sense. The next day though, Peter tells me he and Annabelle are in a relationship now and they are going to meet up in San Francisco that weekend. They fell in love right away, and already have made trips to see each other’s parents, and meet each other’s friends. I thought this woman was charming and funny, with a nice dash of nerdiness and a big heart as well. They were perfect for each other.

I was happy for them, but I couldn’t help but think about my own love life. How I often would meet someone, and think they were nice, but I always managed to find something wrong. Maybe she chewed oddly, and I didn't want our future children to have dental problems. Sometimes she wasn’t funny enough, and I didn't want to carry the burden of humor all the time. One time she was too funny, and I thought this would mean she was irresponsible. One girl was really great in bed, but it made me think that she would cheat on me later, so I dumped her before she could. Every time I thought I was making a good percentage play. But I realized something after seeing Peter and Annabelle together.

If all you do is make the best percentage play, you can be a good poker player.

But you will suck at Love.

Love isn’t about cold hard facts. The idea that any two people on a planet of 7 Billion can meet and fall in love for their whole lives is ludicrous, mathematically speaking. But Love is a gamble. We put our hearts out there time and again, and very often we get crushed. As a poker player, Love itself is an unprofitable bet. But Love is also wonderful, and joyous, and most importantly, UNQUANTIFIABLE. Love is the biggest pot ever and the odds you’re getting to make it work are a bet you should make every time. You may get hurt, in fact, very often you will get hurt. But that doesn't matter, because when you do get it really right, it will be worth all the heartache that preceded it.

So drop all those calculations and all those percentages. Keep trying for Love. Don’t give up because it’s risky, or scary, or hard. Bet on yourself. Bet on Love. You are worth it.

(FYI, Peter has since broken up, and we have had several nights of me holding his head while he vomits. But he doesn’t regret it. He is happy that he tried and did everything he could to make it work with a woman he really loved. As for me, I’m gonna give Love another chance. It’s not a good percentage play…but it’s time to gamble on Love again. )